Labour Market Statistics

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.

Labour market statistics

July’s proposed redundancies highest of 2021

• 850 redundancies were proposed during July 2021, taking the total number of proposed collective redundancies in the last twelve months to 6,090, nearly a third less than the number recorded in the previous twelve months (8,790).
• During July 2021, 250 redundancies were confirmed, taking the annual total to 5,750.  This annual total was 81% higher than in the previous year (3,180).

NI Claimant Count (Experimental Series) decreased for the fifth consecutive month

• In July 2021, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 50,000 (5.1% of the workforce), which is a decrease of 800 (1.5%) from the previous month’s revised figure.  The July claimant count is 22% below the recent peak in May 2020, and 64% higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020.

Payrolled employees now higher than pre-COVID for the second consecutive month

• The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in July 2021 was 762,600, an increase of 1.1% over the month and 3.1% over the year.  This is the highest on record and the second consecutive month that employee numbers were above pre-COVID levels.
• Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £1,887 in July 2021, an increase of £39 (2.1%) over the month and £148 (8.5%) over the year.

The unemployment rate increased over the quarter and over the year

• The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people aged 16+ who were unemployed) for the period April-June 2021 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 3.8%.  The unemployment rate increased by 0.4 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and increased by 1.2pps over the year.  The annual change was statistically significant and likely to reflect real change.
• The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased over the quarter by 0.9pps and was unchanged over the year at 71.1%.  Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.
• The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased over the quarter by 1.3pps and over the year by 0.9pps to 25.9%.  Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.
• Put into the context of the UK, NI had the second lowest unemployment rate, the lowest employment rate and the highest economic inactivity rate of all the UK regions.

Commentary

• The number of payrolled employees remain above pre-pandemic levels for the second consecutive month. However, the number of collective redundancy proposals has shown increases in June and July.
• The HMRC payroll data is the most timely and best single, overall indicator of the labour market.  The latest data show that, the number of employees has increased for eight consecutive months, with an increase of 2.9% (21,400 employees) in the last three months alone.  Employee numbers are now at their highest level on record and are 1.3% above those recorded in March 2020 pre-COVID.  This is the second consecutive month that employee numbers have been above pre-COVID levels. Provisional HMRC data show the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme supported approximately 44,000 jobs at the end of June (equivalent to a take-up rate of 6%).  This continues the downward trend from approximately 117,000 supported jobs during January.
• The Labour Force Survey shows the total number of hours worked (April-June 2021) has increased by 19% over the year, reflecting the lower number of employed people who are temporarily away from work or working zero hours compared to one year earlier. The total number of hours worked in April-June remains 6% below the pre-pandemic level in October-December 2019, the employment rate (71.1%) remains 1.2pps below the pre-pandemic rate, while the economic inactivity (25.9%) and unemployment (3.8%) rates are 0.1pps and 1.5pps above respectively.
• Following low levels of redundancies at the beginning of 2021, the number of proposed collective redundancies has increased from 150 in May to 490 in June and 850 in July.  These levels of proposed redundancies remain below the 2020 average of 920 redundancies per month.

Notes to editors: 

1. The statistical report and associated tables are available on the Labour Market Overview page of the NISRA website.
2. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency wishes to thank the participating households for taking part in the Labour Force Survey.
3. Today’s release contains updated labour market indicators from household surveys, and administrative data sources.  Although the broad concepts are similar across sources, differences in reference periods, definitions and methodology exist which impact the interpretation of the statistics.  Of particular note is the ‘location’ of the furloughed in the estimates.  Those furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) or receiving a grant through the Self Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) are included in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates of employment and not within the LFS unemployment estimates.  Similarly, employees on the CJRS are included in the HMRC count of employees paid through payroll, and the Quarterly Employment Survey estimate of employee jobs.  In contrast, a proportion of those receiving grants through CJRS and SEISS may be accessing Universal Credit unemployment benefits as a ‘top-up’ payment and are included in the experimental Claimant Count.
4. ‘Over the quarter’ refer to comparisons between the latest quarterly estimates for the period April-June 2021 and the quarter preceding that (i.e. January-March 2021).  ‘Over the year’ refer to comparisons between the latest quarterly estimates for the period April-June 2021 and those of the corresponding quarter one year previously (i.e. April-June 2020).  Changes that are found to be significant in a statistical sense (i.e. where the estimated change exceeded the variability expected from a sample survey of this size and was likely to reflect real change) will be specifically highlighted.
5. Estimates relating to April-June 2021 should be compared with the estimates for January-March 2021.  This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for March-May 2021, as the April and May data are included within both estimates.
6. The official measure of unemployment is from the Labour Force Survey.  This measure of unemployment relates to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the last four weeks or were waiting to start a job.  This is the International Labour Organisation definition.  Labour Force Survey estimates are subject to sampling error.  This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted.  For example, the unemployment rate is likely to fall within 1.0% of the quoted estimate (i.e. between 2.8% and 4.8%).
7. The claimant count is an administrative data source derived from Jobs and Benefits Offices systems, which records the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits.  In March 2018 the NI claimant count measure changed from one based solely on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) to an experimental measure based on JSA claimants and out-of-work Universal Credit (UC) claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed.  Those claiming unemployment-related benefits (either UC or JSA) may be wholly unemployed and seeking work, or may be employed but with low income and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related benefit support.  Under UC a broader span of claimants became eligible for unemployment-related benefit than under the previous benefit regime.
8. The recent changes in claimant count can largely be attributed to the increase in the numbers of people becoming unemployed or having their hours reduced resulting in very low earnings below the administrative earnings threshold.  There may be some persons, previously not eligible for UC due to partner earnings, now eligible as a result of work allowance increases who would now be included within the count.  We are not able to identify the extent to which each group has contributed to the increase in claimant count.
9. Redundancies are provided by companies under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 (Amended 8 October 2006) whereby they are legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees.  Companies who propose fewer than 20 redundancies are not required to notify the Department, therefore the figures provided are likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, however, it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.
10. To prevent the potential identification of individual businesses, redundancy totals relating to fewer than 3 businesses are not disclosed.  The Statistical Disclosure Control Policy is available on the Redundancies background information page of the NISRA website.
11. HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) system is an administrative data source.  The PAYE RTI system is the system employers use to take Income Tax and National Insurance contributions before they pay wages to employees.  These data relate to employees paid by employers only, and do not include self-employment income.
12. Estimates of the number of paid employees and employee earnings from PAYE are classed as experimental statistics as they are still in their development phase.  As a result the data are subject to revisions.  The HMRC PAYE covers the whole population rather than a sample of employees or companies.  Data are based on where employees live and not the location of their place of work within the UK.  Data are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.
13. HMRC’s statistics on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme were published on 2nd August 2021 and are available on the GOV.UK website. The next publication of these statistics is 9th September 2021.
14. Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme ‘Employments’ are defined according to the scheme eligibility criteria and is a jobs-based measure.  An individual employed by more than one employer is counted once for each employment furloughed.  Up to date information on the scheme eligibility criteria is available on the GOV.UK website.
15. The Labour Market Report will be of interest to policy makers, public bodies, the business community, banks, economic commentators, academics, and the general public with an interest in the local economy.
16. The next Labour Market Report will be published on the NISRA website on Tuesday 14th September 2021.
17. For media enquiries contact the Department for the Economy Press Office at: pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk.
18. The Executive Information Service operates an out of hours service for media enquiries between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays.  The duty press officer can be contacted on 028 9037 8110.
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20. Feedback is welcomed and should be addressed to:Responsible statistician: Mark McFetridge, Economic & Labour Market Statistics (ELMS),Mark.McFetridge@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 902 55172.

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